Weekly Market & Currency Developments – From Our Bankers

Slowest business credit growth in 30 months

Record tourists from Indonesia

Private sector credit; Credit card debt; International aviation; China data

  • Lending: Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.1 per cent in June (consensus: +0.3 per cent). Lending growth for housing is the slowest since records began in 1976. Business credit fell by 0.1 per cent in June – the first contraction since January 2017.
  • Credit cards: According to APRA, bank lending to households by credit card fell by a record 5.0 per cent in the year to June. Credit card lending totalled $39.2 billion in June – near 81⁄2-year lows.
  • International air traffic lifts: International scheduled passenger traffic through Australian airports increased to 3.208 million in May 2019 from 3.027 million in May 2018 – an increase of 6.0 per cent. Passenger traffic for the year ended May 2019 was 42.071 million, up by 4.0 per cent. The number of travellers from Indonesian airports grew by 10.9 per cent to 3,224,688 people over the year to May.
  • China purchasing managers’ indexes: China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose from 49.4 points to 49.7 points in July (consensus: 49.6 points). And the services gauge fell from 54.2 points to 53.7 points in July (consensus: 54.0 points). A level above 50 denotes in expansion in activity.

 

Private sector credit figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on business spending. Credit card data is important for the retail and financial sectors. Aviation activity data is important for airlines and hotels. Chinese data have implications for the currency markets and therefore exporters and importers.

 

What does it all mean?

  • The weaker value of the Aussie dollar against the greenback is luring ever more tourists ‘Down Under’. Australia is a highly sought-after tourist magnet and international carriers are benefiting. In fact, over 42 million passengers travelled through Australia’s international airport terminals over the year to May.
  • Tourism Australia’s $10 million “UnDiscover Australia” campaign in South-East Asia, launched last year, has received a major boost. A record-high 211,100 Indonesian tourists ventured to Australia over the 12 months to May, according to the Bureau of Statistics. And the annual growth rate of international airline passengers heading south to Australia from Indonesian airports rose by 10.9 per cent to 3.2 million in May – the strongest pace across all ‘discharge’ countries.
  • Despite an interest rate cut on June 4, political uncertainty ahead of the Federal Election and a slowing global economic backdrop both continue to weigh on business confidence and credit.
  • The loss of domestic economic momentum is still evident in June with business credit growth turning negative for the first time in 30 months, reflecting a weakening in commercial finance. Non-mining business investment has been sluggish in recent months, but a pick up is expected due to policy stimulus later this year.

 

What do the figures show?

Private sector credit & APRA data (June)

  • Private sector credit (effectively outstanding loans) rose by 0.1 per cent in June (consensus: +0.3 per cent) – the third successive month of just 0.1 per cent growth and the weakest monthly growth in 61⁄2 years.
  • Annual credit growth fell from 3.6 per cent in May to a fresh 51⁄2-year low of 3.3 per cent in June.
  • Housing credit grew by 0.2 per cent in June. And the annual growth fell from 3.7 per cent to 3.5 per cent – the slowest growth rate on record.
  • Owner occupier housing credit rose by 0.2 per cent in June to stand 4.9 per cent higher over the year – the weakest annual growth rate in five years.
  • Investor housing finance was flat for a sixth successive month in June with annual growth the slowest on record at 0.5 per cent.
  • Personal credit fell by 0.2 per cent in June after declining by 0.6 per cent in May. Lending fell 3.5 per cent over the year – the biggest annual decline in 91⁄2 years.
  • Business credit fell by 0.1 per cent in June after flat results in April and May – the first contraction in business credit growth in 30 months. The annual growth rate fell from 4.5 per cent in May to 4.0 per cent – the slowest annual growth rate in 10 months.
  • The M3 money aggregate was flat and Broad Money lifted by just 0.1 per cent in June. Annual growth of the M3 money aggregate fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent in June. And the Broad Money annual growth rate fell from 4.1 per cent to 4.0 per cent in June.
  • Term deposits with banks fell by $8.7 billion to $609.4 billion in June – the lowest level in 7 months. And the annual growth rate eased from 6.4 per cent in May to 4.9 per cent in June – the slowest pace in 11 months.
  • Loans and advances by banks grew by 3.4 per cent in the year to June, the slowest growth rate in 27 years.
  • Loans and advances by non-bank financial intermediaries rose by 9.6 per cent in the year to June, below the 11.6 per cent annual pace in September 2018 – the fastest pace in 11 years.
  • Deposits at banks rose by 0.3 per cent in June after falling by 0.2 per cent in May. Annual growth eased from 4.0 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
  • According to APRA, loans by banks to households via credit cards rose slightly from an 81⁄2-year low of $39.20 billion in May to $39.23 billion in June. Credit card lending is still down by a record 5.0 per cent over the year (biggest fall in 14 years).

 

International air traffic

  • According to the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) international scheduled passenger traffic in May 2019 was 3.208 million compared to 3.027 million in May 2018 – an increase of 6.0 per cent.
  • Passenger traffic for the year ended May 2019 was 42.071 million, up by 4.0 per cent over the year.
  • Total seats made available on international scheduled operations to/from Australia in May 2019 were 4.190 million – a decrease of 1.7 per cent over the year. Overall seat utilisation increased from 73.5 per cent in May 2018 to 78.6 per cent in May 2019.
  • The Qantas group – Qantas Airways, Jetstar and Jetstar Asia accounted for 27.3 per cent of total passenger carriage in May 2019. The group’s share in May 2018 was 27.6 per cent.
  • The share of passenger traffic accounted for by Australian designated airlines has increased from 33.6 per cent in May 2018 to 33.8 per cent in May 2019.
  • Low cost carriers, AirAsia X, Cebu Pacific Air, Indonesia AirAsia, Jetstar, Jetstar Asia and Scoot Tigerair accounted for 14.3 per cent of total international passenger traffic in May 2019. The low cost carriers’ share inMay 2018 was 15.7 per cent.

 

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • Private sector credit figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.
  • The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases data on domestic and international aviation each month. The data is useful in tracking consumer spending and airline performance.
  • The National Bureau of Statistics releases the Chinese purchasing manager indexes at the beginning of each month. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economy have major implications for the Aussie economy.

 

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • Loans extended to buy Aussie homes are growing at the slowest pace for more than 40 years. But property market conditions have improved since the Federal Election. Policymakers have acted to stabilise the market after two years of falling home prices. While housing credit growth remains weak, we expect a modest, but gradual recovery in the property market to eventually support loan demand.
  • Upcoming property-related data releases and the all-important Spring selling period will be closely scrutinised to as certain whether a ‘soft landing’ has been engineered by policymakers.
  • Annual personal and credit card growth are both decelerating. Aussie consumers are finding other ways to obtain credit, such as ‘buy now, pay later’ methods (i.e. Afterpay Touch) and mortgage offset accounts. And Millennials generally prefer to use debit and ‘tap and go’ card payment options, rather than building up debt using credit cards.
  • The Reserve Bank is expected to sit back for a few months before deciding the next move on rates. Inflation remains below the policymaker’s 2-3 per cent target, providing headroom for additional policy stimulus to bolster economic activity, if required.

 

US interest rates: Fed cut a “mid-cycle adjustment”

US Federal Reserve meeting

  • US Federal Reserve decision: As expected, the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (“FOMC”)reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (quarter of a per cent) to between 2.00-2.25 per cent – the first rate cut since December 2008. FOMC members voted 8-2 to cut interest rates. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George both voted to keep rates unchanged.
  • US interest rate outlook: In its statement, the FOMC stated that as “the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.” US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later cautioned, “It’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts”, but added “I didn’t say it’s just one …we’re thinking of it as essentially in the nature of a mid-cycle adjustment to the policy” at his press conference after the central bank announced its decision. 

 

Changes in US monetary policy settings can affect rates in Australia as well as the sharemarket and currency.

 

What did the Fed decide and what does it all mean?

  • Who’d be a central banker? Interest rate cuts normally boost sharemarket sentiment. But financial markets reacted negatively after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since December 2008. US shares fell sharply, shorter-dated US Treasury bond yields lifted and the US dollar hit two-year highs. The Aussie dollar bore the brunt of whipsawing markets, falling from highs of near US68.98 cents to lows near US68.32 cents and was near US68.48 cents in late US trade.
  • Why? In his press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell was more “hawkish” than expected, wrong-footing traderswho were hoping for a more “dovish” cut (i.e. more explicit confirmation of further policy easing). In fact, Chair Powell called the rate cut a “mid-cycle adjustment”, adding “it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts”, implying that the central bank was not embarking on a lengthy rate-cutting cycle, as in a recession, dampening future interest rate cut expectations.
  • In its statement, the FOMC cautioned that “In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 21⁄4 percent.”
  • Along with the rate cut, the Committee decided to end the reduction of bonds it is holding on its balance sheet.The Fed’s balance sheet will stop being reduced effective from August 1 with assets totalling around US$3.6 trillion. 

 

What are the implications of today’s decision?

  • In his press conference, Chair Powell said that “the committee still sees a favourable baseline [economic] outlook”, but the rate cut was focused on “insuring” against downside risks, such as the re-intensification of US-China trade tensions, which have “returned to simmer.”
  • Slower global growth, moderating factory activity, muted inflation, fading fiscal stimulus (i.e. tax cuts) and slowing business investment have all been cited as risks to the continuing US economic expansion.
  • While some traders were holding out for an even larger 50 basis point rate cut by the FOMC, recent US economic data releases have been more positive, supporting the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
  • While annualised US economic (GDP) growth was a more “moderate” 2.1 per cent in the June quarter, labour market conditions remain “strong” with the July unemployment rate forecast to fall back to 49-year lows of 3.6 percent when released on Friday. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index lifted to the highest level this year in July, pointing to a potential lift in growth in the September quarter on the back of solid spending.
  • Following the release of the FOMC statement, US shares fell sharply. The Dow Jones declined as much as 478 points during trading, closing lower by 333 points or 1.2 per cent. The S&P500 was down by 1.1 per cent and the Nasdaq lost 98 points or 1.2 per cent. A positive earnings result from Apple (up 2 per cent) was overwhelmed.
  • The US Treasury yield curve flattened during trading with 2-year yields up as much as 15 points. But US 10-year yields fell by 6 points to near 2.00 per cent. And US 2-year yields rose by just 2 points to near 1.87 per cent.
  • The US dollar (USD) has strengthened to near two-year highs, with the USD Index up 0.6 per cent at 98.68 from a pre-FOMC low of 98.05.
  • Economists still expect the FOMC to cut interest rates in September to support the continued US economic expansion and to coax inflation closer to its 2 per cent policy target.

 

Aussie home prices lift by the most in 21 months

Annual export prices growth hits 2-year highs

Home prices; Export & import prices; Manufacturing

  • Home prices: The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 0.04 per cent in July – the biggest increase since October 2017. And capital city home prices rose by 0.1 per cent – the biggest lift since August 2017. Home prices rose most in Darwin (up 0.4 per cent), followed by Hobart (up by 0.3 per cent). Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne prices all rose by 0.2 per cent. But prices were down in Perth by 0.5 per cent, followed by Adelaide and Canberra (both down by 0.3 per cent). Regional home prices fell by 0.2 per cent.
  • Export & import prices: Import prices rose by 0.9 per cent (consensus: 1.5 per cent) in the June quarter and were up 2.8 per cent on a year ago. Export prices rose by 3.8 per cent (consensus: 2.8 per cent) in the quarter to be up 17.4 per cent over the year – the strongest annual growth rate in two years.
  • Terms of trade: Based on today’s data we expect that the ratio of export prices to import prices (terms of trade) rose by around 2.8 per cent in the June quarter.
  • Manufacturing sector: The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 49.4 points to 51.3 points in July. But the ‘final’ IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.0 to 51.6 in July. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion. 

 

Home price data is important for retailers, especially those focussed on consumer durables. The manufacturing data provides guidance for companies in the Industrials sector. The terms of trade data is useful in assessing the outlook for the Australian dollar and therefore trade-exposed businesses.

 

What does it all mean?

  • There’s a lot to like about today’s Aussie data releases. Home prices lifted, export incomes are growing andmanufacturing sector activity rebounded in July. The economy isn’t firing on all cylinders yet, but the loss of momentum earlier this year appears to have been contained by policy stimulus.
  • Importantly, with the Aussie sharemarket straddling record highs and home prices finding a floor, consumers may start to feel a bit more chipper. That said, continued job gains remain crucial to improving sentiment.
  • Policymakers have acted to stabilise the property market after two years of falling home prices. While it’s too early to determine whether a ‘soft landing’ has been engineered, Aussie home prices appear to have bottomed. In fact, national home prices increased by the most since October 2017 in July.
  • The lift in home prices was modest in July, but increases were broad-based, even extending to the Top End, where Darwin led gains across capital cities. Territorians have had a rough time with home prices down almost 30 per cent peak-to-trough, so this is a very welcome development.
  • Housing markets, however, will still have to contend with an increased supply of properties as new house and apartment projects get completed over the next year. But apartment prices rose in both Sydney and Melbourne, despite extensive coverage of building defects.
  • The good news for Australia more broadly is that the prices of goods we export are rising at a far faster pace than the price of imports. Aussie incomes continue to rise sharply, boosting our fiscal position. 

 

What do the figures show?

Home prices

  • The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 0.04 per cent in July, the biggest increase since October 2017. But home prices fell by 6.4 per cent over the year to July.
  • In capital cities, prices rose by 0.1 per cent – the biggest lift since August 2017 – to be down 7.3 per cent over the year to July. House prices were broadly flat, but apartment prices rose by 0.2 per cent. House prices were down 8.0 per cent on a year ago and apartments were down by 5.3 per cent.
  • In regional areas, house prices fell by 0.2 per cent, but apartment prices were broadly flat in July to be down 3.0 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively on the year.
  • The average Australian capital city house price (median price) was $622,897 and the average unit price was $532,110 in July.
  • Dwelling prices rose in five of the eight capital cities in July. Home prices rose by the most in Darwin (up 0.4 per cent), followed by Hobart (up by 0.3 per cent). Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne prices all rose by 0.2 per cent. But prices were down in Perth by 0.5 per cent, followed by Adelaide and Canberra (both down by 0.3 per cent).
  • Home prices were lower than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities in July. Prices fell by the most in Sydney (down 9.0 per cent); Perth (down 8.9 per cent); Darwin (down by 8.7 per cent), Melbourne (down 8.2 per cent); Brisbane (down 2.4 per cent) and Adelaide (down 0.8 per cent). But prices are still positive in Hobart (up 2.8 per cent) and Canberra (up 1.1 per cent).
  • Total returns on national dwellings fell by 2.7 per cent in the year to July with houses down by 3.4 per cent on a year earlier and units were down by 0.8 per cent. In contrast, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index lifted by 12.9 per cent over the year to July. 

 

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

  • The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 49.4 points to 51.3 points in July. But the ‘final’ Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.0 to 51.6 in July. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion.
  • According to AiGroup, “The improvement in July was driven by ‘building materials, wood, furniture & other’ manufacturers, the large food & beverages sector and the chemicals sector, while the heavy industrial sectors (metals, machinery & equipment) continue to report weak conditions. Local demand for Australian manufactured products remains weak with both sales and production contracting in July. However, overseas demand remains strong, particularly for consumable manufacturing products such as food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, vitamins and cosmetics.”
  • According to experts, “Australia’s manufacturing sector started the third quarter on a softer note, with the latest survey data indicating a moderation in growth. Expansions in both output and new orders eased in July, while firms cut back on stockbuilding. However, business sentiment remained positive. Meanwhile, cost inflation intensified on the back of a weaker exchange rate, pushing firms to raise selling prices further.”

 

Export & import prices

  • The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that import prices rose by 0.9 per cent in the June quarter to be up 2.8 per cent over the year. The Aussie dollar depreciated against the greenback during the quarter, supporting trade prices.
  • Import prices were driven higher by increases in petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (up 6.1 per cent) and “other” transport equipment (up 7.1 per cent).
  • Six of the ten broad import categories recorded price increases in the June quarter.
  • Export prices rose by 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. Export prices are up 17.4 per cent over the year. Overall, export prices were driven by higher prices for iron ore, gold, base metals, metal scrap, petroleum, petroleum products and meat.
  • Eight of the ten broad export categories recorded price increases in the June quarter.
  • The ratio of export prices to import prices (a proxy for the terms of trade) likely rose by around 2.8 per cent in the June quarter.

 

What is the importance of the economic data?

  • The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database.Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
  • The AiGroup and our Purchasing Manager indexes (PMIs) for services and manufacturing are released each month. The Australian PMIs are the local equivalents of similar indexes released for other countries. The PMIs are amongst timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMIs are useful not just in showing how the sectors are performing but in providing some sense about where they are heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly estimates of export and import prices. The figures assist in gauging inflationary pressures in the economy. 

 

What are the implications for interest rates and investors?

  • The Reserve Bank is expected to sit back for a few months before deciding the next move on rates. Inflation remains below the policymaker’s 2-3 per cent target, providing headroom for additional policy stimulus to bolster economic activity and reduce unemployment, if required.
  • Aussie factory activity bounced back in July. Encouragingly, new orders and employment both lifted.
  • Australia’s external sector is in fine fettle. Experts estimate that the terms of trade rose by over 2 per cent in the June quarter, bolstering Aussie income growth.
  • Iron ore prices lifted by over 20 per cent in the quarter, boosting the Budget coffers of the Federal Government.
  • The impact of the rural drought was most evident in lifting meat prices. Slaughter rates have increased, but so has Chinese demand for Aussie beef – seen as a substitute for pork due to the African swine flu epidemic ravaging China’s hog herd.

 

Investor Signposts: Week Beginning August 4 2019

 

Australia: Reserve Bank dominates

  • In the coming week, the Reserve Bank dominates the economic calendar. International trade, lending, services sector activity and job advertisements data will all be closely monitored for a post rate cut pick up.
  • The week kicks off on Monday with the release of services surveys from AiGroup. And the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge is issued for July.
  • On Tuesday all eyes will be on Martin Place, Sydney, when the Reserve Bank announces its interest rate decision at 2.30pmAEST. We expect the Board to ‘sit pat’ in August – continuing to observe incoming data – after successive rate cuts in June and July. Stimulus is expected to boost economic activity in the second half of the year.
  • Also on Tuesday, the weekly series of consumer confidence will be released from Roy Morgan and ANZ. Tax refunds and lower mortgage rates are supporting consumer sentiment.
  • Also on Tuesday, the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases international trade data and ANZ provides an update on job advertisements. Australia’s external sector is in great shape. Economists expect a bumper trade surplus of $6 billion in July.
  • On Wednesday, the ABS issues new lending data for June. Property market conditions – especially in Sydney and Melbourne – have improved through June and July, boosting hopes of an eventual stabilisation in housing finance approvals.
  • Also on Wednesday, the AiGroup releases the Performance of Construction Index for July.
  • On Thursday, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor (Financial System), Michele Bullock, speaks at the Toowoomba Chamber of Commerce Business Breakfast at 7.30am AEST.
  • And on Friday the Reserve Bank releases its Statement of Monetary Policy. All eyes with be on the Board’s economic (GDP) growth and inflation forecasts. And Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe appears before House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra.

 

Overseas: Reserve of New Zealand set to cut rates and China data in the spotlight

  • In the absence of tier-1 data releases in the US, investor focus will turn to China where international trade and inflation data are released. Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut rates.
  • The week begins on Monday in China, when the Caixin survey on services activity is issued for July.
  • Also on Monday in the US, the ISM services gauge is released. A rebound is expected after services sector activity eased to the lowest level in two years in June. Vehicle sales are also provided by Ward’s Automotive.
  • On Tuesday, the regular weekly reading on chain store sales is due together with the JOLTS series of job openings and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Total job vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by 1.44 million in May. Skills shortages have pushed the US jobless rate down to 49-year lows.
  • On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The most recent statement from the Monetary Policy Committee cautioned that, “more support from monetary policy was likely to be necessary.”
  • On Wednesday in the US, the weekly mortgage applications figures from the US Mortgage Bankers Association are due. June consumer credit (or lending) data is also issued and expected to remain steady at US$17 billion.
  • In China on Thursday international trade data is issued by the National Bureau of Statistics. And consumer and producer prices data are released on Friday. Consumer prices are lifting due to elevated pork prices because of the African Swine flu epidemic. But risks of factory deflation are rising due to the US-China trade war.
  • On Thursday in the US, the weekly figures on new claims for US unemployment insurance are issued, along with wholesale trade sales and inventories data. Inventories can influence the pace of economic activity.
  • On Friday, US producer prices round out the week. Core producer prices increased in June, driven by a lift in trade services prices, implying a potential stabilisation in US inflation.

 

Financial markets

  • The Australian corporate reporting season moves into first gear with a bevy of major companies expected to release earnings results. Companies reporting on Monday include Advance NanoTek, Cape Range, ImExHs and Universal Biosensors.
  • On Tuesday: BWP Trust, Empyrean Energy, Shopping Centres Australasia Property and Zenith Energy.
  • On Wednesday: FFI Holdings, King Island Scheelite, Reckon, Suncorp, Transurban and Zip.
  • On Thursday: AGL Energy, AMP, Charter Hall Education Trust, IAG, Navigator Global Investments and Mirvac.
  • On Friday: Alliance Aviation, Baby Bunting, Carpenteria Resources, Orora, REA and Strategic Energy Services.

 

DISCLAIMER

 

This Freightplus article contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and has been prepared in good faith and with all reasonable care. Freightplus makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the suitability, completeness, quality or exactness of the information and models provided in this website.

 

Neither Freightplus (Australia) Pty Ltd, its related entities, nor any of its providers of information, have any liability to the user, or any other third party, for the accuracy of the information or models contained in this article, or for any errors or omissions therein, nor will Freightplus (Australia) Pty Ltd or any of its providers of information have any liability for the use, interpretation or implementation of the information or models contained herein by any person.



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